Evidence-based Management: Blog

Working in Tandem

Bob Sutton has written an interesting post on his blog 'Work Matters', where he muses on intuition vs. data-based decision making. Without giving too much of the plot away, he argues the merits of both, and how they can work hand-in-hand.

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Posted in Commentary by Paul Reist | | Permalink | Comments (0)

March 31, 2009

Why experts are so often wrong

Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
by Philip E. Tetlock. Princeton University Press, 2005

In a world filled with expert predictions that are mostly incorrect, and filled with people who eagerly seek such predictions even though they are incorrect, Tetlock's book explores why experts are so often wrong and why we listen to them anyway. There is no more evidence-based subject matter than forecasting. This book provides an excellent overview of the perils and pitfalls in making forecasts.

Another great resource is J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, who has amazing, open-source (i.e., free) and proven forecasting techniques and insights on his website.

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Posted in Academic research, Commentary by Jeffrey Pfeffer | | Permalink | Comments (2)

January 30, 2009

So that settles it: Doonesbury says “it’s an evidence-based world now.”

Today was a great day for the evidence-based management community. Doonesbury declared "it's an evidence-based world now." Here's an excerpt:*

"Caucasian woman: You know I've always thought you were a jerk, right? But not because I'm a racist.

African-American man: Uh, then why?

Caucasian woman: Because you are a jerk! And it's an evidence-based world now!"

I suppose, in keeping with Dr. Sutton's recent book, this would be even funnier if "jerk" were replaced with "a$$h@!e".

*From the Doonesbury cartoon for 30-Jan-2009.

January 28, 2009

Lessons from Bob Woodward: A Call for Evidence-Based Management

Check out Bob Woodward’s analysis of what the Obama Administration can learn from the Bush Administration’s errors. His list echoes the fundamentals of evidence-based management. With all due respect to the Harvard Business School, by the way, this is not something that was or is taught to MBAs there or at most business schools. Here is the list, which is also on my blog.

1. Presidents set the tone. Don’t be passive or tolerate virulent divisions.

2. The president must insist that everyone speak out loud in front of the others, even — or especially — when there are vehement disagreements.

3. A president must do the homework to master the fundamental ideas and concepts behind his policies.

4. Presidents need to draw people out and make sure that bad news makes it to the Oval Office.

5. Presidents need to foster a culture of skepticism and doubt.

6. Presidents get contradictory data, and they need a rigorous way to sort it out.

7. Presidents must tell the public the hard truth, even if that means delivering very bad news.

8. Righteous motives are not enough for effective policy.

9. Presidents must insist on strategic thinking.

10. The president should embrace transparency.

October 21, 2008

The first rule of evidence-based management: Show, don’t tell.

On the Evidence Soup blog, I wrote about a recent Talent Management article discussing medical research suggesting that poor management can cause real health problems. Sounds interesting, right? But instead of referencing the research or linking to it online, the Talent Management author simply restated the findings to support his point (and, I suspect, rephrased a few variable definitions along the way). Nothing wrong with supporting a point of view, but evidence-based management requires more discipline than that. We need to raise expectations so that people show us their evidence, rather than just tell us about it.

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Posted in Management practice, People, Teaching by Evidence Soup | | Permalink | Comments (1)

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